His likely attempts to win back the support of public opinion will only deepen economic uncertainty.
British Conservatives have plunged the country into a painful limbo. They have declared their support for Boris Johnson, leaving him in office, but seriously hurting him. His likely attempts to win back the support of public opinion will only deepen the uncertainty facing the country.
Johnson has vowed to continue, even though 41% of Conservative MPs have voted for him to step down, a higher proportion than opposed Theresa May in 2018. The scale of disapproval means he remains vulnerable, especially if a committee MP concludes she misled lawmakers about her knowledge of Downing Street parties during lockdowns. Although the rules of his party prevent another challenge for a year, these could be modified.
Johnson is likely to resort to attention-grabbing policies to win back some public support. Yesterday he spoke of plans to reduce the cost of child care and help more people buy houses. It remains to be seen whether he will lift the spirits of consumers, who suffer from inflation and tax hikes. But this extravagance is likely to put a strain on public finances at a time when the budget watchdog expects public debt to reach nearly 100% of GDP.
Ministers can try to square this circle by prodding profitable but unpopular industries, as they have done with the oil and gas windfall tax. But that could further discourage business investment, already weakened by the impact of Brexit.
Replacing the leader will not solve these problems. Johnson’s internal opponents seem to agree on little beyond his dislike for him, and any successor would have a hard time overcoming the Brexit drag. But the leader’s three years in office have been marked by thoughtless policies. It is even more likely that he will resort to short-term tricks. Companies and investors looking for a predictable place to deploy their capital will increasingly look elsewhere.
