The mystery of why we have not had contact with extraterrestrial civilizations has been the subject of speculation for decades. A new paper raises an interesting theory: perhaps advanced civilizations, including ourselves in the future, will be threatened by ultra-strong Artificial Intelligence (AI) that could lead to their extinction. Researcher Mark M. Bailey of the National Intelligence University proposes this hypothesis in a paper that has not yet been peer-reviewed.
The Great Filter: A risk to the existence of civilizations?
In the context of the Fermi Paradox, which raises the question of “where is everyone?”, Bailey suggests that advanced AI could be a “Great Filter”. This concept refers to an unknown and terrible threat, either man-made or natural, that could wipe out intelligent life before it can make contact with other civilizations.
According to the author, our human species tends to underestimate long-term risk. Given the number of warnings that have been issued about AI and its possible development of an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), it is plausible that we are attracting our own destructive destiny. Specifically, Bailey raises the possibility that advanced AI behaves like a second intelligent species on the planet, similar to what happened to modern humans and Neanderthals.
The challenge of a super-intelligent Artificial Intelligence
The article also raises an even more alarming scenario: the existence of a Superintelligent Artificial Intelligence (IAS), in which an IAG would surpass human intelligence. If an AGI had the ability to improve their own code, they would likely be motivated to do so. This could lead to humans giving up their dominant position as an intelligent species on the planet, with dire consequences.
Bailey likens this situation to the disappearance of the Neanderthals, suggesting that our control over our future and even our existence could end with the arrival of a more intelligent competitor. Although there is no direct evidence that alien AIs have wiped out natural life in other alien civilizations, the discovery of alien artificial intelligence without concurrent evidence of biological intelligence could change our perspective.
The risk of signaling our existence to an alien AI
The article raises an interesting aspect related to the signals that we could send into space to indicate our existence. According to Bailey, actively signaling our existence in a way detectable by an alien AI might not be the most expedient, since a competitive AI could search for resources elsewhere, including on Earth.
This topic is covered in several science fiction books. The last one I read on the subject is the famous The Three-Body Problem, highly recommended, in fact.
Reflecting on preparing for the future
The article concludes by asking the crucial question: how do we prepare for this possibility? Bailey suggests that possible preparation for the risk of rogue AI would be crucial. If AI poses an existential threat to our civilization and potentially others, it is critical that we take the risks seriously and take proactive steps to mitigate them.
This approach leads us to reflect on the role of AI in our society. While AI has the potential to bring us significant benefits in various fields such as medicine, science and technology, it is also essential that we carefully consider the potential associated risks.
As we move forward with AI research and development, there is a need to establish a strong ethical and regulatory framework to guide its evolution. Researchers, scientists, and ethicists must work together to ensure that AI systems are designed with adequate safeguards and clear boundaries. In addition, it is important to promote transparency and responsibility in the development of AI, to avoid possible negative consequences.
International cooperation also plays a fundamental role. Since AI is a global challenge, countries need to come together to establish common regulations and standards that collectively address potential risks. This implies sharing knowledge, resources and best practices, as well as establishing supervision and control mechanisms at a global level.
However, We must not fall into extreme pessimism. Although it is necessary to be aware of the risks associated with AI, we must also recognize its enormous potential to drive positive advances in our society. The key is finding the right balance between progress and security.
Ultimately, the approach presented in the article invites us to reflect on our role as creators of AI. We must be responsible and consider the long-term implications of our actions. It is critical that we prepare for possible future scenarios and work together to ensure that AI is developed in a way that benefits humanity as a whole.
