iPhone 14, the road is uphill: for Kuo the problem will be inflation

Apple reportedly communicated to suppliers iPhone production target for 2022: 220 million, as in 2021. This is reported Bloomberg, and there is the hand of the journalist Mark Gurman, considered one of the most reliable sources in the Apple world internationally. Investors, who had bet on +20 million iPhones produced this year, would not have welcomed the news of a 2022 equal to 2021.

The increase to 240 million iPhones produced in 2022 was almost given for discounted by virtue of the expected newswhich are many and certainly greater, even at first glance, than those introduced by the iPhone 13. The iPhone 14 Pro should in fact mark a turning point compared to the recent past, with the abandonment of the notch, which many years later do not they still swallowed, replaced by a “pill” for Face ID and front camera.

Nevertheless the smartphone sector is not going through a good time, and even Apple would suffer the consequences, albeit to a lesser extent than its competitors. Analysts predict a 2% contraction of the entire sector due to inflation never so high in the last decade due to the war in Ukraine and the persistent chip crisis, so, however, in a similar context if Apple manages to placing the same iPhones of 2021 in the face of a shrinking market would bring home one half victory.

Apple anyway would be able to “save” iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max, which are the two that guarantee the highest profit margins. Two days ago the Nikkei Asia, we talked about it, reported that at least one of the four iPhones expected in September would arrive late: according to the analyst Jeff Pu of Haitong International Securities it would not be a Pro but of the unprecedented iPhone 14 Maxthe one that will take the place of the disappointing iPhone 13 mini.

Pu explained that the delay – of three weeks – would be caused by Pegatron problems during the latest Shanghai lockdown, so the start of mass production of the iPhone 14 Max would be scheduled for. The end of August, that is, a few weeks before Apple’s presentation which typically takes place in mid-September. The production process of the iPhone 14, 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max instead should start regularly in the first days of August.

It is still to be understood, added Pu, whether the difficulties in the package of the iPhone 14 Max will translate into a “way” to shipments to customers late compared to the brothers or simply in a lack of availability at the time of the opening of sales. A colleague of Pu, the reliable one, spoke on the subject Ming-Chi Kuowho shared the latest (reassuring) information collected on Twitter.

(2/2)
I believe iPhone 14’s challenges will come from the demand side instead of the supply side.

– 郭明 錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) May 26, 2022

Kuo confirms the difficulties of the iPhone 14 Max, but at the same time highlights that Apple may ask its partners to catch up on the schedule by working overtime, so as to get back on track. The problem, from his point of view, would be almost non-existent. Rather than from the production chain the problems could come from consumersso the focus should not be on supply but on demand.

The analyst, in essence, confirms the issue raised by Bloomberg, but shifts attention to what he considers the real problem, that of consumers who are discounting (and likely will discount) the effects of inflation. The budget that a not insignificant part of the customers would have devoted to the purchase of one of the new generation products could end up being eroded by inflation and lead to different choices.

The problem will not be the news of the iPhone 14 or even how many they will be able to produce, but the money.

Last image from 123RF.