Indoor masks disappear tomorrow. But it is better not to sing victory so quickly

These are the last days of the mandatory mask indoors in Spain and, while news arrives from countries that have been forced to back down and make it mandatory again, the question that everyone is asking is: Can we claim victory? Is it the definitive “end” of the pandemic? Or is it possible that we have to take steps back?

A measure that has already been reversible in the past. On June 26, 2021, the mask is no longer mandatory outdoors. The improvement in the epidemiological situation, the high vaccination rates and the proximity of a critical summer season for the huge Spanish tourism sector encouraged the Government to begin the de-escalation following in the wake of countries such as Israel, Poland or the United States.

The withdrawal lasted six months. On December 22, 2021, with Omicron breaking records for infections and family gatherings just around the corner, the Government pressed the button on the masks again and they returned to the streets of the country amid controversy over the scarcity of masks. scientific evidence supporting this decision. On February 10, this obligation disappeared again.

Will it happen again? In this sense, the question of whether we will have to take steps back (be it now, in a few months or with the arrival of winter) is very pertinent. In fact, the ministry does not dare to give a clear answer and, in a recent interview in El País, Carolina Darias said that “we are preparing [por si hay que dar marcha atrás] and Europe too. One of the lessons of this pandemic is that we have to be prepared for present threats, but also for future ones. The Government of Spain, hand in hand with the autonomous communities and experts, is not lowering its guard” and, when asked if they will be necessary next winter, replied that “we will consider it in due course. All in due time.”

And it is that we sail in a sea of ​​uncertainties. A good example of this is that there is no clear consensus among experts. Although most agree that it is not an “illogical” or “crazy” measure, it is a “delicate” move. Proof of this is that in Germany or France the cases rose as soon as it was withdrawn; but, above all, that in Austria it had to be re-introduced because infections did not stop growing.

The question is not so much whether to withdraw it or not. This is something that seems well established because, as Mario Fontán, a specialist in Preventive Medicine and Public Health, pointed out, with “the vast majority of the population [con] at least double dose” of the vaccine and without extra restrictions, the “weight” of the mask in controlling the pandemic is much lighter than before.

The key to the controversy is how to do it in a context in which, as Joan Caylá, a member of the Spanish Society of Epidemiology, explained at NIUS, “it is proven that when social interaction increases, as has happened with carnivals or with the failures [y, previsiblemente, ocurrirá en Semana Santa]cases are increasing”. Above all, because “Spain is the only country in the European Union that has eliminated the isolation of mild cases” and this is an extra potential risk.

The ‘nuclear button’ of the masks. However, if we are honest, we will have to recognize that having legal and political precedents for the return of the masks, the Government’s inventiveness to bring them back if the cases increase significantly is there (and will continue to be there in winter). Or, better said, “it can continue to be there”. Because, as we have argued on many occasions, pandemics do not end when the virus stops circulating in society, but rather when society assumes that it must recover “its normal life” even if this has significant costs.

As long as COVID remains relevant to the country and the fear of a “return to March 2020” remains on the table, masks will never be ‘definitely’ out of circulation. It is true that the signs tell us that society has already shelved the pandemic, but (and in this Minister Darias was right) if SARS-CoV-2 has taught us anything, it is that, at any time, it can return to our lives.