Gazprom investors do not have Rosneft’s Qatari airbag

When it comes to Russia’s view of Western investors, Rosneft seems like the exception that proves the rule. Moscow confirmed on Thursday that it would allow the giant to pay a dividend, after having prevented Gazprom from doing so.

The government’s blockade of the payment of 20,000 million dollars, announced at the gas company’s annual general meeting, is not a great surprise. Moscow controls half of the shares, but Western firms like BlackRock and Vanguard own much of the rest. The invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions mean Russian state-backed companies have no hope of raising Western capital, meaning the days of risk-appetizing foreign investors seeking big dividend returns are over. Even though Gazprom is down 30%, the boss, Alexei Miller, won’t be too worried.

The Kremlin will not be harmed. On the same day as the dividend freeze, lawmakers backed a one-off increase in Gazprom’s mineral tax amounting to about $8 billion. Instead of pandering to foreign investors, it can use the savings to spend $10 billion through 2025 on improving the nation’s gas infrastructure. Other firms, such as Sberbank and Alrosa, have already eliminated their dividends.

Rosneft’s more generous treatment of its own $8 billion payout is unlikely to reflect a change of heart with respect to its own Western shareholders, such as BP. It could have something to do with Qatar holding almost 20%. Gulf players have maintained a more neutral stance towards Russia: Rosneft has just announced a new Qatari president.

Exactly how easy it is for a foreigner to claim dividends from Russian firms is in question. Rosneft boss Igor Sechin recently suggested that Moscow would be unobtrusive, but added that any dividend would have to go through a special account. What is clearer is that the oil company’s payment policy is almost certainly an exception.