What cars are banned

The restrictions apply not only to vehicles with internal combustion engines, but also electric vehicles, hybrids, light commercial vehicles, including small-capacity (now banned and key cars with an engine capacity of up to 660 cubic centimeters), trucks and utility vehicles.

At the same time, last year Japan already introduced restrictions on the supply of cars worth more than 6 million yen (about 4 million rubles at the current exchange rate at the time the note was published). With new restrictions, Russians are now left without minivans such as the Toyota Alphard or Nissan Serena, SUVs, including the popular Toyota Land Cruiser of various series, Nissan Patrol and Mitsubishi Pajero, Toyota Mark family sedans or Nissan Skyline. In addition, most mid-size crossovers, such as the Honda CR-V or Toyota RAV4, as well as the popular hybrids of the Toyota Prius family and Nissan Leaf electric vehicles, are subject to the restriction.

The supply ban applies to both new and used vehicles.

In total, several hundred items fall under the export restrictions under the new sanctions package from Japan, including truck tires, yachts, car seats, car locks, ceramics, paper, glass, ceramic tiles, cement, textiles, photography materials photo and video and more.

What are the implications of the new ban for the market

In total, about 200,000 used cars were delivered from Japan to Russia in 2022, with a total value of approximately $1.8 billion. After the tightening of anti-Russian sanctions, exports will be limited to small cars, which will account for only 720 million. “The duration of the current sanctions is unknown, but they will inevitably lead to a decrease in the Japanese presence in the region,” said Hironori Fushita, an associate professor at the Kobe University of International Studies and a member of the Japan Institute of International Affairs.

New sanctions could deal a significant blow to the regional economy in Japan, primarily Toyama prefecture on the coast of the Sea of ​​Japan, which is one of the centers for the shipment of used cars. After all, Russia was the largest market for Japanese used cars: it accounted for 26 percent of Japan’s total export earnings for this commodity item. “For the Japanese, the market will sink in such cars that the Japanese did not buy, but the Russians bought. This market will sag very strongly – two times, ” said the car dealer Alexander Kolevinsky, who has been specializing in the supply of cars from Japan for 20 years.

Experts point out that a business infrastructure focused on Japanese cars has been built in the Russian Far East for the sale of cars and their maintenance, as well as for the supply of parts and assemblies. However, now it can reorient itself to Chinese and South Korean cars.

Cars with an engine capacity of less than 1.9 liters are the middle class and below. These cars have been delivered and will continue to be delivered.

Sergey EfremovVice President of the All-Russian Union of Insurers, Deputy Executive Director of the Russian Union of Motor Insurers

In general, analysts believe, there should be no serious consequences for the Russian market. True, it is not completely clear whether the Japanese authorities will be able to control the parallel import of their cars through third countries, for example, Toyota sedans through China or Mitsubishi SUVs through the UAE .

Some market participants say that ways around the sanctions have already been found. In particular, Mikhail Mokrushin , a representative of a Japanese company specializing in the export of cars to Russia, mentioned this in a conversation with Lenta.ru . According to him, the people of Japan themselves are interested in preserving the traditional flows of auto exports. “Hybrid cells and batteries are very expensive to dispose of in Japan,” Mikhail explains. “By buying cars from there, we not only replenished their treasury, but also significantly relieved them of “garbage.”

What’s going on in the Far East

Shortly before the ban came into force, the import of Japanese cars to the Far East rose sharply: deliveries to the region jumped by 30 percent in recent weeks. In total, from the beginning of the year to the end of July, 155.6 thousand foreign cars passed through the Vladivostok customs (in 2022, over the same period, half as many were issued – 78 thousand cars). June and July 2023 were peak periods. Buyers tried to take away as many cars as possible before the new restrictions began to take effect.

In the first half of 2023, 811.8 thousand used cars of Japanese brands were sold in Russia, both recently imported and already in circulation on the Russian market. Exactly half of them are cars with an engine capacity of more than 1.9 liters.

Despite the assurances of analysts, Japan’s new sanctions actually turned out to be serious: Tokyo literally stops the dispatch of vehicles already in ports or on ships, that is, purchased before August 9, Primorye auto journalist Yuri Morozov told Lente.ru . “In fact, many Russians have now become owners of property in Japan that they cannot take out of there. We will have to resell it there, and it is already clear that prices in the Japanese market will fall, that is, people will lose money, ”he explained.

Dealers in the so-called drowned people, that is, cars that fell under water back in Japan or on their way to Vladivostok, also made a fuss, which made them practically unsuitable for further operation.

Large importers and resellers in the largest and oldest car market in the country – “Green Corner” – act in different ways. Some try to have time to acquire, import and clear as many cars as possible, slowly with their resale; others, on the contrary, sought to sell off their existing car fleet at a premium to people who, in a panic, came to Vladivostok from Siberia to get a car, fearing a total shortage in the future.

Now, Morozov stressed, there are many who sell broken and hastily repaired cars. According to him, dealers in the so-called drowned people, that is, cars that fell under water in Japan or on the way to Vladivostok, also made a fuss, which made them practically unsuitable for further operation.

Deliveries to the Russian Federation from Japan will not disappear, just logistics chains within the framework of parallel imports will become more complicated. This will lead to an increase in prices by an average of 10-20%

According to local residents, if a similar situation with the collapse of the Japanese car market occurred in the late 1990s, then both the city and the entire region would face a complete disaster. Now the Far Eastern ports, railways and highways are also loaded with other imported cargo, including parallel imports.