Heathrow’s heavy baggage

Whoever picks up Ferrovial’s luggage at Heathrow will need thick skin. Potential buyers of his 25% stake in the airport include venture capital Ardian and Saudi sovereign wealth fund PIF. With relations with airlines and the regulator at a low ebb, and with irate passengers and mountains of suitcases clogging his arrivals halls, it’s easy to see why he wants to leave. That may be reflected in the price.

At 13.4 times the EBITDA forecast for this year, the average price multiple of Aena and Aeroports de Paris, Heathrow as a business is worth just under 23,000 million euros. But discounting its net debt, its own funds amount to only 5,000 million, which suggests that Ferrovial could expect 1,200 million from a buyer. Given the endless headaches — from a potentially prolonged recession to baggage-handling glitches, security staff shortages and judges putting the brakes on its expansion plans — it may be overkill.