Your increased investment may increase profitability, but it could also be wasteful
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are giving in, a bit, to temptation. The two oil giants declared last week that they plan to invest more to increase production of shale and reduce the carbon intensity of production. If crude oil prices remain high, the result should be higher profits and a more sustainable business, which could boost investors’ returns. The worrying thing is that the sector recovers the taste for waste.
$340 billion Chevron plans to spend $14 billion in 2023, before counting subsidiaries. The budget adds $2 billion, or 14%, to this year’s sum. Exxon, whose market value is around $440 billion, said it would spend up to $25 billion on exploration in 2023, at the high end of its target range through 2027.
Part of this increase is unavoidable, due to inflation. These levels of capital spending are also modest compared to past excesses. Chevron invested nearly three times as much in extraction in 2013. Even so, it risks spending too much on fossil fuels just before demand falls. And spending too much on renewables would be worrisome given its lack of competitive advantage and likely lower profitability than oil and gas.
Both companies continue to insist on returning cash to shareholders. Exxon says it could spend $50 billion on share buybacks on its own through 2024. If the price of oil stays around $80 a barrel, the company would generate about $160 billion of cash surplus through 2027. Its shares trade at 9 times the estimated earnings for the next 12 months, a small discount to Chevron, but a large discount to the 16 times average that Exxon has achieved in the last two decades. Part of it has to do with the way investors have recalibrated for the energy transition, but it also reflects understandable doubts about what drillers will do as money pours in.