Apple will ship 9 million fewer iPhones in Q4 2022

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We have often talked about the negative repercussions that the “final” (hopefully, at least) part of the COVID-19 pandemic is having on the global supply chain, mainly due to China which continues to insist on the “zero tolerance” policy and impose very strict measures as soon as new outbreaks emerge, however small; according to the latest estimates by Morgan Stanley, the blow for Apple will be quantified at approx 9 million fewer iPhones sold this quarter end of the year compared to initial expectations.

In recent weeks we have told you about the particularly delicate situation especially because of the Foxconn factory-city: a small outbreak broke out, and before the lockdowns were triggered (which, moreover, later came true) thousands of workers preferred to flee to avoid them; those who remained found themselves facing very poor living conditions and the impossibility of leaving due to the lockdowns. Some found themselves effectively escaping from the workplace. Once the emergency returned, Foxconn found itself with another problem: to reintegrate the lost workers. We talk about tens of thousands of people, who again due to anti-COVID laws had to remain in isolation for a few days before being integrated with the rest of the workforce. Finding accommodation for everyone was very difficult, and required several days of adjustment in which production was well below the capacity of the plants.

Previous estimates from other sources had speculated that Apple would sell as many as 12 million fewer iPhones than it was potential. Demand remains very strong especially for the Pro and Pro Max models, analysts say; therefore it is probable that the device availability problems will persist also in the first quarter of 2023, especially as regards third-party retailers.

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Translated into cold numbers, Apple is expected to bill around $120 billion this quarter – and that if the situation of the production chain of its iPhones had been normal, this figure would have been 3% higher. If these forecasts prove correct, it will be a slight contraction from what was observed in the fourth quarter of 2021, in which revenue reached $123.9 billion. Ultimately, however, China itself will probably suffer the most serious consequences of the situation: Apple has in fact decided to further accelerate the “escape” of its factories from the country, in favor of Vietnam and India.

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(update of December 07, 2022, 20:00)