India and China are likely to be hurt by a price cap on Russian crude. In the short term, it must be admitted that they benefit, because they can negotiate better prices with Moscow. But the US idea that “everyone wins but Russia” is simplistic. Anyone who buys Russian crude above the price cap will face logistical dominance from the West. 60% of the ships carrying Russian crude are from Greece and other EU countries, and the insurers are mostly from Norway and the UK. And if Putin cuts supply, he could drive up prices, wiping out any short-term benefits for everyone.

And there is a cost in the long run. A cap will undermine signals for producers to invest (high prices in the 2000s fueled the gas boom shale In U.S.A). These signals are important for Asia, whose demand will continue to rise, while that of the West slows down. As the green transition accelerates, long-term supply relationships will become more important.